The Folly of Projections
Pew Research recently published a set of “key facts” about China’s declining population. I’d like to discuss the problems associated with population forecasts and explain why there is nothing “factual” about these prognostications.
Recently, the mainstream media made a big deal over the “fact” that India’s population surpassed China’s in 2023. However, this “fact” was based on UN projections. It should be common sense to anyone that a projection cannot be considered a fact. The only way to determine a population fact is through a population census, i.e., you must actually count the number of people.
The UN forecasts come in three flavors: a “high variant” scenario, a “medium variant” or middle-of-the-road scenario, and a “low variant” scenario. The medium variant scenario is most often cited.
There is a great deal of variability between these scenarios. As such, it is too ambiguous to call any of these forecasts “factual.”
Different groups and academics have their own forecasts which contradict the UN projections. For example, there is one source from Yi Fuxian at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Why should I choose to believe Yi Fuxian instead of the UN? Why should I have to choose at all? Facts should not be a matter of whom you believe.
Population forecasts are more of an art than a science. They should never be considered factual. They’re only useful for indicating trends, but trends are only valid if a country like China does nothing, or can do nothing, to alter the future course.
How do we know that China is powerless to change the future? The West has been underestimating China for decades. The most prominent example of such underestimation is Gordon G. Chang who has repeatedly predicted China’s collapse for more than 20 years and has been proven wrong every single time.