Pew Research recently published a set of “key facts” about China’s declining population. I’d like to discuss the problems associated with population forecasts and explain why there is nothing “factual” about these prognostications. Recently, the mainstream media made a big deal over the “fact” that India’s population surpassed China’s in 2023. However, this “fact” was based on UN projections. It should be common sense to anyone that a projection cannot be considered a fact. The only way to determine a population fact is through a population census, i.e.,
The Folly of Projections
The Folly of Projections
The Folly of Projections
Pew Research recently published a set of “key facts” about China’s declining population. I’d like to discuss the problems associated with population forecasts and explain why there is nothing “factual” about these prognostications. Recently, the mainstream media made a big deal over the “fact” that India’s population surpassed China’s in 2023. However, this “fact” was based on UN projections. It should be common sense to anyone that a projection cannot be considered a fact. The only way to determine a population fact is through a population census, i.e.,